“Sparked by a courtroom directive, the Manipur conflict reveals deep-rooted ethnic divisions and raises pressing questions about India’s internal cohesion and regional strategy.”
The 2023 Manipur violence can be traced back to the order issued by the Manipur High Court on March 27, 2023. This directive urged the Manipur state government to promptly consider the inclusion of the Meetei/Meitei community in the Schedule Tribe (ST) list, ideally within four weeks of receiving the court’s order. This request arose from the state government’s prolonged inaction regarding the Meitei community’s inclusion in the ST list over the past decade. Following the court order, a ‘Tribal Solidarity March’ was organized by All Tribal Students’ Union Manipur (ATSUM) on May 3, 2023, coinciding with the outbreak of violence on the same day, after reports of gunfire “at the foot” of the ‘Anglo-Kuki War Gate,’ which sparked retaliatory actions between the Meitei and Kuki communities. Although the court order can be attributed to the recent violence in Manipur, it is important to note that the state has a history of intra-indigenous community clashes and tensions.
The Meiteis account for around 53% of Manipur’s population, with the majority of them residing in Imphal Valley (which covers just about a tenth (2238 sq. kms) of the state’s total size of 22327 sq. kms). The remaining 40%, which includes other communities such as Nagas (20%) and Kukis (16%), largely live in the hill areas, which account for almost 90% of the total territory of the state (20089 sq. kms out of 22327 sq. kms). Past accounts suggest that the Kukis are particularly concerned about the government of the day’s actions in Manipur over indigenous land rights, which have been viewed as primarily directed at them. They have also been regularly characterized as refugees or foreigners in Manipur, linked to narco-terrorism, and harboring “illegal” Kuki migrants from Myanmar who assist the indigenous populace in growing poppy and extracting opium. However, on the other side of the equation, a close observation suggests that both the Meiteis and Kukis had defined the ongoing crisis using the approach of equality and fear – with the Meiteis keen to expand their area and dominance through a fear of marginalization, and the desire for protection through India’s Scheduled Tribe (ST) classification / status, and while the Kukis redefined and politicized both domestically and internationally on moral high ground to legitimize their inhibited territories claims through the dread of remaining within the state of Manipur, and seek for a separate administration.
The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at the center responded with a conspicuous silence at the commencement of the violence, drawing criticism from India’s opposition parties as well as various sections of the Indian population. Though India’s Home Minister Amit Shah visited the state after nearly a month of violence, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi did not even visit the violence-stricken state due to the election campaign, and was forced to break his silence in July 2023 when a video showing two women forced by a Meitei mob to walk naked sparked global outrage. Despite the Modi government’s assurance that peace will be restored in Manipur, restoring peace is still a long way off, based on conflict data from May 03, 2023 to May 03, 2024, during which 220 people were killed, an unknown number of people went missing, and approximately 60,000 people were displaced. In a September 2024 post on X, Congress president stated, “PM Modi’s abject failure in Manipur is unforgivable.”
A CHANGING CONTEXT
Following the 2021 military takeover in Myanmar, around 5,400 persons from Myanmar have sought refuge in Manipur, and the continuous influx of refugees into Manipur by those with close ties to the Kukis including the September 2024 not substantiated report of ‘900 Kukis Militants’ infiltrated from Myanmar into Manipur has produced a deeper sense of insecurity in the state. As a result, on observing the ongoing crisis behavior between the Meitei and Kuki communities in the state of Manipur reveals that the crisis is likely to last an indefinite period of time as both the logic of consequences and the logic of appropriateness were at play – with reports of allegations pointing that the Meiteis, who are predominantly Hindus appear to have the support of the government of the day in Manipur and New Delhi, while the Kukis, who are predominantly Christian appear to have the support of India’s security forces deployed in Manipur and international bodies.
Previously, the violence had spread to a larger scale and nomenclature, with clashes between armed Kuki and Naga groups occurring in June 2024 within Myanmar and along the India-Myanmar border areas, as well as reports of Naga, Meitei, and Myanmar Shanni armed groups forming an alliance to combat the alliance of Kuki armed groups and the Myanmar People’s Defence Force (PDF). The Naga group accused India’s Assam Rifles (AR) and India Security Forces of using the armed Kuki group, along with the Myanmar People’s Defence Force (PDF), as a proxy war against the Nagas, and border villages in Manipur had accused Indian Security Forces of involvement in the ongoing Myanmar conflict. While, on the other side of the strategic equation, India’s involvement in the Myanmar crisis is intended to balance China’s influence, it sees growing Chinese influence in Myanmar as a threat to states in India’s North-Eastern Region (NER); however, a troubled Manipur and NER will stymie its Act East Policy (AEP) and the implementation of the India-Myanmar-Thailand (IMT) trilateral highway, among other initiatives.
The tension between the Kukis and the Meities appears to have decreased currently, however, fresh tensions between the Kukis and the Nagas appear to be on the verge of exploding as Kuki volunteers burn down houses at Kazanga village, a Maram Naga village on April 4, 2025, and a reported clash took place on April 5, 2025 between Liangmai Nagas and Kukis over the suspected Kuki militants attacked and kidnapped the village chief, chairman, and secretary of the Konsaram village, a Liangmai Naga village. While the security situation in Manipur remains volatile, aggravated by the use of weaponized drones, rockets, and advanced weapons during the Meitei-Kuki conflict, the emergence of fresh hostilities between Kukis and Nagas signals a dangerous escalation with potential spillover effects across Western Southeast Asia and Eastern South Asia. Without a strategic rethinking of its regional policies, India risks entrenching long-term instability throughout the region.
About the Author: Augustine R. is an independent analyst and researcher specializing in international relations and geopolitical affairs. With a background in international relations, trade, and development, his interests span global security and economic diplomacy, while his focus includes the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) strategic nexus, Sino-Indian relations, and the foreign policies of the U.S., China, and India. Click here to view all articles by the author.
Featured Image: Manipur Crisis / Shambhavi Thakur